AR Marshall

Dr Andrew R. Marshall

B.Sc. (Cardiff), M.Res. (York), Ph.D. (York)

Current Positions
Research Fellow (Environment Department, University of York)
Director of Conservation Science (Flamingo Land Ltd., North Yorkshire)

My main research interests are ecology and conservation of tropical forests, with focus on primates, duikers, trees, carbon, climate change and restoration ecology in Tanzania. Most recently I have initiated the Udzungwa Forest Project which aims to integrate ecological research with practical conservation in one of the world’s most important areas for conservation of biodiversity, through collaboration with a North Yorkshire zoo (Flamingo Land) and the Worldwide Fund for Nature Tanzania Programme Office. I am also currently a member of two projects looking at tropical forest carbon stocks and the impacts of climate change on species distributions. I have previously been involved in a number of projects in the region, including Ph.D. research into the effects of human disturbance on monkeys and trees. I have also held short-term positions at the British Trust for Ornithology interpreting waterbird declines on UK wetlands, and placements at Paignton Zoo Environmental Park (Devon, UK) and at the University of California (Berkeley, USA).


Description of Research Activities

1. Valuing the Arc

This project funded by the Leverhulme Trust, is a five-year collaboration between a number of partners from European, Tanzanian and US Institutions (link below). The study is focussing on the Eastern Arc mountains of Tanzania, an area of global importance for conservation and the source of water supply and power to at least half of Tanzania’s urban population. However, despite growing global-level recognition that conservation often makes economic sense for society as a whole, decision-makers continue to behave as if ecosystems have little or no value. Therefore, the aim of this project is to determine the economic value of the Eastern Arc Mountains to the people of Tanzania, and to the international community. In achieving this, the project is carrying out detailed study of ecosystem services including carbon-related services, hydrological services, and biodiversity-related services.

I have been carrying out the first phase of fieldwork for the project, assessing carbon-related services. Global warming caused by release of greenhouse gases through human activity, is set to cause significant environmental damage at a high economic cost. Habitats that store high amounts of carbon (such as forests), therefore have high economic potential as carbon sinks, but before values can be attached to them, we need to know actual quantities. To determine this I have been using one hectare permanent sample plots (PSPs) in several areas of the Eastern Arc Mountains. By measuring the trees within each plot, established equations will be combined with empirical modelling to convert the dimensions into biomass and then carbon. Trees will then be remeasured after a period of three years to assess the rate of carbon sequestration. Empirical and theoretical data will then be combined to develop descriptive, spatially explicit models of the production and delivery of each focal service. Results will then be used to inform and support Payment for Environmental Service initiatives under development in Tanzania.

Funding: The Leverhulme Trust (UK)



2. The Borderlands Project: Climate Change and Species Distributions

The second of my two postdoctoral projects is focussed on the borderlands of Tanzania and Kenya. The area is characterised by a wide range of environments with one of the largest concentrations of wildlife on earth. Now the effects of global climate change pose a serious threat to this extraordinary region – not only to its wildlife but to the lives of the Maasai, who have evolved with a variable climate and lived alongside the wildlife for millennia. This area is also the economic driver of the tourist industry for Kenya and Tanzania: each year over one and a half million visitors are drawn to the region’s 14 world-famous parks, earning the two African nations over $0.5 billion in vital revenue.

The project will chart the consequences of climate change on people, animals and protected areas. The project unites the University of York’s Environment Department with international scientists from the African Conservation Centre (Kenya) and the University of San Diego and Missouri Botanical Gardens (USA), as well as drawing heavily on traditional knowledge in the area. Results will be used to develop management strategies for this vitally important area that are sensitive to climate change, population use of the area and the dynamic nature of the ecosystems. Together with our colleagues, we are mapping the distribution of plants, mammals and birds in the borderlands – and to model their vulnerability to climate change. The research will build on the work underway at the University of York within the Historical Ecological of East African Landscapes and York Institute for Tropical Ecosystem Dynamics headed by Dr Paul Lane (Archaeology) and Dr Rob Marchant (Environment) respectively.

Funding: Liz Clairborne Art Ortenberg Foundation (USA)



3. Udzungwa Forest Project

UFP was established through my position at Flamingo Land Theme Park and Zoo (link below) to research and monitor forest animals and plants in the Udzungwa Mountains, with particular focus on the effects of forest degradation. It was initiated in September 2007, with the following aims:

  1. To improve conservation of threatened habitats;
  2. To improve knowledge of the ecology and conservation priorities for Tanzania’s threatened species;
  3. To improve environmental education;
  4. To train Tanzanian villagers and graduates in ecological monitoring;
  5. To disseminate research and education outputs to a wide audience;
  6. To improve resources and income in rural areas;
  7. To promote and advertise the exceptional biodioversity and beauty of the Udzungwa Mountains.

The Udzungwa Mountains are part of the Eastern Arc mountain chain (see Valuing the Arc project above). Of all the Eastern Arc forests, the Udzungwa Mountains are arguably the most important for conservation. They supply water to hydropower plants that produce one third of Tanzania’s electricity and have the highest number of endemic and threatened species of all the Eastern Arc forests (Burgess et al 2006). They also contain the Eastern Arc’s only National Park, which covers just below one fifth of the 10,000 km2 land area. Threatened species present include Africa’s rarest carnivore, Jackson’s mongoose, the Udzungwa forest partridge and Abbott’s duiker. Furthermore the Udzungwas are arguably Africa’s most important single site for primate conservation, with up to 12 species, including two Udzungwa endemics (the Udzungwa red colobus, Sanje mangabey), one Eastern Arc endemic (a bush-baby Galagoides orinus) and one that was found new to science within the last two years (kipunji monkey Rungwecebus kipunji). But perhaps most importantly, Udzungwa has the largest area of forest in the Eastern Arc (1,353 to 1,500 km2; Marshall 2007).

The major components of the project are 1) integrative conservation planning with villages and managers of the threatened Magombera forest, and 2) long-term research to determine the ecology and habitat requirements of some key animal and plant species in Magombera forest, Kilombero Nature Reserve and Udzungwa Mountains National Park. The research component includes monitoring of threatened primates, duikers and trees and assessment/restoration of forest habitats affected by human and elephant damage. The research is carried out mostly by Tanzanian villagers and graduates, along with international researchers and volunteers.

Funding: Flamingo Land Ltd. (UK)



Links

Udzungwa Forest Project

Valuing the Arc

KITE



Publications

  • William F. Laurance, D. Carolina Useche, Luke P. Shoo, Sebastian K. Herzog, Michael Kessler, Federico Escobar, Gunnar Brehm, Jan C. Axmacher, I. Ching Chen, Lucrecia Arellano Gámez, Peter Hietz, Konrad Fiedler, Tomasz Pyrcz, Jan Wolf, Christopher L. Merkord, Catherine Cardelus, Andrew R. Marshall, Claudine Ah-Peng, Gregory H. Aplet, M. del Coro Arizmendi, William J. Baker, John Barone, Carsten A. Brühl, Rainer W. Bussmann, Daniele Cicuzza, Gerald Eilu, Mario E. Favila, Andreas Hemp, Claudia Hemp, Jürgen Homeier, Johanna Hurtado, Jill Jankowski, Gustavo Kattán, Jürgen Kluge, Thorsten Krömer, David C. Lees, Marcus Lehnert, John T. Longino, Jon Lovett, Patrick H. Martin, Bruce D. Patterson, Richard G. Pearson, Kelvin S.-H. Peh, Barbara Richardson, Michael Richardson, Michael Samways, Feyera Senbeta, Thomas B. Smith, Tim Utteridge, James E. Watkins, Rohan Wilson, Stephen E. Williams, Chris D. Thomas (in press) Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota. Biological Conservation doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.10.010.
  • Feldpausch, T.R., L. Banin, O.L. Phillips, T.R. Baker, S.L. Lewis, C.A. Quesada, K. Affum-Baffoe, E. Arets, N. Berry, M. Bird, E.S. Brondizio, P. de Camargo, J. Chave, G. Djagbletey, T. Domingues, M. Drescher, P.M. Fearnside, M. B. Franc, N.M. Fyllas, G.L´opez-Gonzalez, A. Hladik, N. Higuchi, M. Hunter, Y. Iida, K. Abu Silam, A. Rahman bin Kassim, M. Keller, J. Kemp, D. King, J.C. Lovett, B.S. Marimon, B.H. Marimon-Junior, A.R. Marshall, D.J. Metcalfe, E.T.A. Mitchard, E.F. Moran, B.W. Nelson, R. Nilus, E.M. Nogueira, E. Lenza de Oliveira, M. Palace, S. Pati, K.S.-H. Peh, M.T. Raventos, J.M. Reitsma, G. Saiz, B. Sonk´e, H.E. Taedoumg, S. Tan, H.Woll, L. White, J. Lloyd (2010) Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees. Biogeosciences Discussions 7 doi:10.5194/bgd-7-1-2010.
  • Ahrends, A., Rahbek, C., Bulling, M.T., Burgess, N.D., Platts, P.J., Lovett, J.C., Wilkins Kindemba, V., Owen, N., Ntemi Sallu, A., Marshall, A.R., Mhoro, B.E., Fanning, E., Marchant, R. (2010) Conservation and the botanist effect. Biological Conservation dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.08.008 [PDF]
  • Swetnam, R. D., Fisher, B., Mbilinyi, B. P., Munishi, P. K., Willcock, S., Ricketts, T., Mwakalila, S., Balmford, A., Burgess, N. D., Marshall, A. R., Lewis, S. L. (in press) Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling. Journal of Environmental Management.
  • Burgess, N.D., Bahane, B., Clairs, T., Danielsen, F., Dalsgaard, S., Funder, M., Hagelberg, N., Harrison, P., Haule, C., Kabalimu, K., Kilahama, F., Kilawe, E., Lewis, S.L., Lovett, J.C., Lyatuu, G., Marshall, A.R., Meshack, C., Miles, L., Munishi, P.K.T., Nashanda, E., Shirima, D., Swetnam, R.D., Willcock, S., Williams, A., Zahabu, E. (2010) Getting ready for REDD+ in Tanzania: Progress and Challenges. Oryx 44(3) 339-351.
  • Platts, P.J., Ahrends, A., Gereau, R.E., McClean, C.J., Lovett, J.C., Marshall, A.R., Pellikka, P.K.E., Mulligan, M., Fanning, E., Marchant, R. (2010) Can distribution models help refine inventory-based estimates of conservation priority? A case study in the Eastern Arc forests of Tanzania and Kenya. Diversity & Distributions 16, 628-642. [PDF]
  • Zuur, A.F., Marshall, A.R., Ieno, E.N. (in press). Dealing with collinearity using monkey habitat selection data. In Zuur et al (eds.) Analyzing Ecological Data: Practical Solutions when Things Get Complicated. Highland Statistics Ltd.
  • Swetnam, R.D., Marshall, A.R., Burgess, N.D. (2010) Valuing ecosystem services in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. British Ecological Society Bulletin 41(1), 7-9. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R., Jørgensbye, H.I.O., Rovero, F., Platts, P.J., White, P.C.L., Lovett, J.C. (2010) The species-area relationship and confounding variables in a threatened monkey community. American Journal of Primatology 72, 325-336. [PDF]
  • Rovero, F. & Marshall, A.R. (2009) Camera trapping photographic rate as an index of density in forest ungulates. Journal of Applied Ecology 46, 1011-1017. [PDF]
  • Menegon, M., Tolley, K., Jones, T., Rovero, F., Marshall, A.R., Tilbury, C.R. (2009) A new species of chameleon (Sauria: Chamaeleonidae: Kinyongia) from the Magombera forest and the Udzungwa Mountains National Park, Tanzania. African Journal of Herpetology 58(2), 59-70. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R., Rovero, F., Struhsaker, T.T. (in press) Procolobus gordonorum. In: N. Rowe (ed.) All the World’s Primates. Pogonias Press, Charlestown, Rhode Island, USA, expected 2010.
  • Marshall, A.R. & Fashing, P.(in press) Colobus angolensis palliatus. In: N. Rowe (ed.) All the World’s Primates. Pogonias Press, Charlestown, Rhode Island, USA, expected 2010.
  • Marshall, A.R. & Munishi, P.T.K. (in press) Valuing the Arc: measuring and monitoring forest carbon for offsetting. In: Kareiva, P., Ricketts, T., Daily, G., Tallis, H., Polasky, S. (eds.) The Theory and Practice of Ecosystem Service Valuation. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  • Burgess, N., Mwakalila, S., Madoffe, S., Ricketts, T., Olwero, N., Swetnam, R., Mbilinyi, B., Marchant, R., Mtalo, F., White, S., Munishi, P., Marshall, A., Malimbwi, R., Jambiya, G., Fisher, B., Kajembe, G., Morse-Jones, S., Kulindwa, K., Green, J., Balmford, A. (2009) Valuing the Arc – A Programme to Map and Value Ecosystem Services in Tanzania. Mountain Research Initiative Newsletter 18(3) 18-21. [PDF]
  • Topp-Jørgensen, E., Nielsen, M. R., Marshall, A.R., Pedersen, U. (2009) Mammalian density in response to different levels of bushmeat hunting in the Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania. Tropical Conservation Science 2(1), 70-87. [PDF]
  • Rovero, F., Marshall, A.R., Jones, T., Perkin, A. (2009) The primates of the Udzungwa Mountains: diversity, ecology and conservation. Journal of Anthropological Sciences 87(1), 93-126. [PDF]
  • Rovero, F., Bowkett, A., De Luca, D., Jones, T., Marshall, A.R., Msirikale, J. and Mtui, A. (in press) Camera-trapping to study forest mammals in the Udzungwa Mountains: results from five years of research. Proceedings of the 6th TAWIRI Scientific Conference, December 2007.
  • Marshall, A.R. (2008) Assessing and Restoring Biodiversity in Tanzania’s Forests: The Case of Magombera. Proceedings of the 6th TAWIRI Scientific Conference, Arusha, Tanzania 45-84. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R. (2008) Udzungwa Forest Project Summary for EAZA June 2008. Report for Flamingo Land Ltd., presented to the European Association of Zoos and Aquaria. [PDF]
  • Topp-Jørgensen, J.E., Marshall, A.R., Brink, H., Pedersen, U.B. (2008) Quantifying the response of tree hyrax (Dendrohyrax validus) to human disturbance in the Udzungwa Mountains. Tropical Conservation Science 1, 63-74. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R., Lovett, J.C., White, P.C.L. (2008) Selection of line-transect methods for estimating the density of group-living animals: lessons from the primates. American Journal of Primatology 70, 452-462. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R. (2008) Ecological Report on Magombera Forest. Worldwide Fund for Nature – Tanzania Programme Office. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R. & Mtoka, S.N. (2008) Taarifa ya Kiikolojia ya Msitu wa Magombera. Report to the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund, WWF Tanzania Programme Office, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
  • Bowkett, A., Rovero, F., Marshall, A.R. (2008) The use of camera-trap data to model habitat selection by antelope species in the Udzungwa Mountain forests, Tanzania. African Journal of Ecology 46(4), 479-487. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R., Aloyce, Z., Mariki, S., Jones, T., Burgess, N., Kilihama, F., Massao, J., Nashanda, E., Sawe, C., Rovero, F., Watkin, J. (2007) Tanzania’s second Nature Reserve: improving the conservation status of the Udzungwa Mountains? Oryx 41(4) 429-430. [PDF]
  • Lovett, J.C., Marchant, R., Marshall, A.R., Barber, J. (2007) Tropical Moist Forests. In: R. Hesler and Harrison (eds.) Biodiversity Under Threat. Royal Society of Chemistry. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R. (2007) Disturbance in the Udzungwas: Responses of Monkeys and Trees to Forest Degradation. Ph.D. Thesis, University of York, UK. [ZIP (containing complete thesis chapters in PDF)]
  • Rovero, F., Struhsaker, T.T., Marshall, A.R., Rynne, T.A., Pedersen, U.B., Butynski, T.M., Ehardt, C.L., Mtui, A.S. (2006) Abundance of diurnal primates in Mwanihana forest, Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania: a multi-observer comparison of line-transect data. International Journal of Primatology 27(4), 675-698. [PDF]
  • Lovett, J.C., Marshall, A.R., Carr, J. (2006) Changes in tropical forest vegetation along an altitudinal gradient in the Udzungwa Mountains National Park, Tanzania. African Journal of Ecology 44, 478-490. [PDF]
  • Lovett, J.C. & Marshall, A.R. (2006) Why conserve primates? African Journal of Ecology 44(2), 113-115. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R. (2006) Can we see the monkeys for the trees? Visibility and other challenges for analysis of line transect data. International Journal of Primatology 27, (suppl 1; Program for the Twenty-First Congress of the International Primatological Society), abstract 436.
  • Rovero, F. & Marshall, A.R. (2005) Diversity and abundance of diurnal primates and forest antelopes in relation to habitat quality: a case study from the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. In: B.A. Huber, B.J. Sinclair, K.-H. Lampe (eds.) African Biodiversity: Molecules, Organisms, Ecosystems. Proceedings of 5th International Symposium on Tropical Biology, Koenig Museum, Bonn. Springer Verlag, 297-304. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R., Topp-Jørgensen, J.E., Brink, H., Fanning, E. (2005) Monkey abundance and social structure in two high elevation forest reserves in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. International Journal of Primatology 26(1), 127-145. [PDF]
  • Rovero, F. & Marshall, A.R. (2004) Estimating the abundance of forest antelopes by using line transect techniques: a case from the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania. Tropical Zoology 17, 267-277. [PDF]
  • Struhsaker, T.T., Marshall, A.R., Detwiler, K., Siex, K., Ehardt, C.L., Lisbjerg, D.D., Butynski, T.M. (2004) Demographic variation among the Udzungwa red colobus (Procolobus gordonorum) in relation to gross ecological and sociological parameters. International Journal of Primatology 25(3), 615-658. [PDF]
  • Marshall, A.R. (2004) Ecology and social demography of Udzungwa colobines: a summary of current knowledge. Folia Primatologica 75(suppl 1; Abstracts of the 20th Congress of the International Primatological Society), 23-24.
  • Brink, H., Topp-Jørgensen, J.E., Marshall, A.R. & Fanning, E. (2002) First record in sixty-eight years of Lowe’s servaline genet (Genetta servalina lowei). Oryx 36(4), 324. [PDF]
  • Austin, G.E., Armitage, M.J.S., Atkinson, P.W., Burton, N.H.K., Leech, D.I, Marshall, A.R., Mellan, H.J., Musgrove, A.J., Rehfisch, M.M. (2003) WeBS Alerts 1999/2000: Changes in numbers of wintering waterbirds in the United Kingdom, its Constituent Countries, Special Protection Areas (SPAs) and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs). BTO Research Report No. 306, British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
  • Frontier Tanzania (2001) Botanical, Zoological and Management Reports of the Udzungwa Mountains Biodiversity Survey (6 volumes). Reports for the Udzungwa Mountains Forest Management and Biodiversity Conservation Project, MEMA, Iringa, Tanzania.
  • Bowkett, A., Marshall, A.R., Plowman, A. (1999) Developing and evaluating an enrichment programme in an ageing monkey house. Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Environmental Enrichment, Edinburgh, 304-310.